Neither do the appendices or methodological descriptions you’ve posted. The answer is not for people like Steven Mosher to tell people skeptics shouldn’t talk about the temperature record. The next article we’re told will address liquid to glass changes. Next, better count only days where there was no cloud cover whatever, since cool and warm often just means there was cloud about to lower maxima and raise minima. NCDC uses U.S. data back to 1895 in the USHCN dataset and back to 1880 or so in the GHCN analysis. UHI alone can account for 0.7 C warming since 1960. Think of it as a test of good faith. There was an unusual number to time of observation changes recorded but no one considered why there would be so many changes. Oddly, the trend of MAX temps don’t show warming…. People who aren’t sold the bill of goods on technical grounds are harder to wave away, so you get the bullying. A) Most definitely not. “I had a min-max thermometer when I was seven years old.”. But Gore said hot. the spatial variability is pretty scary (technical term). While the above sounds reasonable to me, it may also be wrong. A charge was made. On top of all that, there is no indication anyone has ever been punished for any of this, suggesting it has been tacitly accepted. How in your opinion does that happen? WUWT? Figure 3.1 presents the plots as “Time series of globally-averaged surface temperature….datasets.” The inference one could reach from this is Correct USCRN Kingston TOBs adjustment: -0.70. I looked at all possible different 24 hour periods (midnight to midnight, 1 AM to 1 AM, etc. That would be quite an interesting result if you could show it to be true. Opps. Another rocket scientist. What if you use only one station in my area that is more shielded from the wind? Or what if they’re looking at the thermometer and it’s half-way between 85 and 86 degrees, but they don’t remember it being a particularly hot day. I’d suggest that those who doubt the efficacy of their approaches do what I did: download the data and take a look for yourself. Mosher, I agree that some skeptics raised the dropping of stations as a red flag. That said, there can be some limited value in the shaping and presentation, whether educational or even artistic. Three of the values identified by TonyL in the 4:39 pm comment were off for different reasons too involved to explain. Historical Climate Network (USHCN) prior to 1950. The transition from afternoon to morning observations started in 1960 or so. May 5, 2016 at 2:55 pm Very true. To determine the impact of changing observation times, I look at two scenarios: one where the time of observation is changed as shown above, and one where the time of observation remains unchanged for all stations. But that type of record keeping is what most of the first 50 years of temperature records are based on. But if you go to the link below, select channel 5, 2012 as an example, and examine 14, 25, and 26 Kft traces; you will see a marked reduction in the range of max minux min. The USCRN hourly is very precise, but it’s lacking one key variable, the human variable. Not all temperature stations are created equal. If so, is that a reasonable assumption for latitudes where the length of a day varies over the year? One has to fiddle with a great many sow’s ears to make that huge silk purse called a global temp. Steven, 4000 equations!!! If you look for a year over year uhi, you might not find warming that survives winter, but how did you try to find it? Why aren’t CRN stations used as the reference for USHCN station adjustments? Are you just jealous of the data source. That solves the divergence issue. What I’ve learned from reading articles posted to this blog by the “Berkeley Group: is that climate scientists don’t understand statistical error analysis and propagation of errors. Use USHCN which has been “hand selected” its 1000 or so stations. Whether the books you looked at were the same records as the US holds or whether they were corrected. So for example, in simple terms, if a min temperature on a cold day occurred near TOBS so that it was similarly cold on both sides of TOBS, then that cold temperature could end up being the recorded minimum for that day and for the day before. Satellites measure a contiguous average twice a day for most of the surface. There’s not much point in wishing it were something else – that is what we have. In that case, the true min and max would happen exactly 12 hours apart, and those two values, presumed to be recorded when reached, could be read into the record at any subsequent time, and would constitute a valid set of samples. my mistake. Steven Mosher: Numerate skeptics have concluded that it is NOT worth arguing about. Based on 12 months of data for 2015. Mcintyre proposes a test. If people want me to believe global warming is a serious problem I need to take meaningful action to address, they need to be able to answer the mundane questions I might have. There is no min/max average, as with temp. I calculated a mean temp from the min/max values in each 24 hour period, averaged all of the reported temps, and averaged the last reported temp in each hour to simulate what would be available from historical WBAN records (like we did in the ’60s). LOTS of ppossibilities here . Another example. Because of the sensitivity of the shelter level temperature to parameters and forcing, especially to uncertain turbulence parameterization in the SNBL, there should be caution about the use of minimum temperatures as a diagnostic global warming metric in either observations or models.”. Somewhere I have the data flows, but I cant do all your homework. As evidenced by 1-minute data world-wide, the daily mid-range temperature is a poor, high-side-biased estimator of the true diurnal average. Revisionism of records for countries. 3. Otherwise there would be an opportunity to start a company with reduced costs to beat out competitors. Even though Cowtan and Way tried. If there were a forgotten trove of long fully homogenous temperature records to use, it would be pretty nice. D) can we improve it =============. hmm a bunch of similar answers that differ by 5, 10, 20%. Users need to be informed of things which negatively impact your results. Today it’s UHI plus ocean cycles – PDO, ENSO, AMO, etc. But the fact that modern methods of recording temperatures continuously were not available in the past is no reason not to use them today. MODEL: Hansen B: 2.8C/century ( since 1979 ) Can ‘homogenization’ cure all my criticism? C) Therefore: there is NO FRAUD. They discuss details of geographical patterns of standard errors in their paper. The problem comes about due to resetting the Max/Min thermometer. It’s not intuitive, but has been recognized for many years that the time of day used for the readings can exert some bias toward higher or lower average temperature determinations. You need to adjust records before 2000. I suggested using the U.S. records, as recorded, with asterisks and footnotes to explain the likely TOB, UHI, and other issues. I could have had it done in a couple days. Berkeley Earth has just released analysis of land-surface temperature records going back 250 years, about 100 years further than previous studies. “But if you had your career invested in them and you needed to show that they were still in the error bars, would you devise a study of the adjusted forces versus variability and see if the 15-year cycle is too short not to be masked by variability? In SVN if you bothered to look ( find that password yet brandon?) “That’s about the size of it.”, It was worth the work that you all have done and are doing, and it has been worth careful examination of the results. canada, norway, japan and austrialia Instead it only addressed the difference between the actual mean daily temperature and the use of (TMAX+TMIN)/2 to approximate the average daily temperature. Are this extensive discussions about TOBS a diversion away from the real issues? Correct. Time series are adjusted using this model in order to remove BIAS, The adjustments, the argument Satellite data has higher levels of structural uncertainty, Folks can go read them and come back with informed questions. During summer months min + max produces a higher temp by up to 0.6C. If you change the TOBs, however, you will end up with trend biases. Agric. You can assemble mashed spam into something that looks like a lamb roast, but that doesn’t make one a pragmatist. Notice that nowhere is the correlation above 0.5 at 2500-km. If you doubt this, look at the starting values of the anomalies for uscrn. It’s a daily reality. ( oceans much more likely ). I’ll bet for an unbiased person with bush sense there will be very few such stations since the factors external to climate are so numerous at any given site over long periods. The assumption is that the volunteers were fastidious in performing this task. Nope. But that’s another thread. approach. The last couple of days I posted on an 8.5 year side-by-side test conducted by German veteran meteorologist Klaus Hager, see here and here. @ Nick I had a hard time getting my head around the issue so I decided to perform the analysis described above. It should be easy for US climate people to determine what mistake they made post-1975 that made the stations inhomogeneous and correct it so the stations weren’t inhomogeneous, and didn’t need to be homogenized. read this tony. Page 7 In this 1903 book references the time of observation and the controversy that surrounded it. In terms of the long term surface temperature trends, the reason that they are receiving such attention is that they are used as the primary metric to diagnose global warming. ‘AlGoreithms’ = precious. I want to search fast. They come out of the dugout with a chance to win it all and serve up one long ball after the other. that was true in 2007 when we figured out TOBS. In an average year there could be about 30 days when geomagnetic daily index exceeds 60, due to the solar flairs and mass ejections. There is a cooling bias of about 0.5 C introduced to the conterminous U.S. temperature record from CRN data by shifting observation times from 5 PM to 7 AM in 50 percent of stations. Click to access peterson-vose-1997.pdf. Luckily you dont get to decide what is useful for policy. …. BEST did not. Are you willing to take personal, legal liability for the correctness of the data treatment, integrity of data? as is happening with the ISTI process)? The black curve tracks the median of the curves, showing that the 24 hr average is not greatly different to the min/max family. 45 years of “catastophic” cooling…, nor is a geographical average meaningful (homogenization of averages is nonsense with an exponent), Yes. Climate Reference Network (CRN). The Same principle keeps frost off the car windows in an open carport, while a car parked in the driveway right behind the one under the carport on a clear, quiet night gets frosted windows. compare by season. A lot of this is done using the Time Of Observation Bias (TOBS) adjustment – which started as 0.3F and later magically changed into 0.3C. For curiosity some while ago I did pretty well whats described above and was quite gobsmacked to find that simply asking Excel to return the daily max and min values and averaging them gave *exactly* the same value as averaging all 288 daily values. The thermometer just shows the highest and lowest temps since it was last reset. They were invariably situated in very rapidly growing communities with all that entails. Improving the adjustments isnt very high on our list of things to do unless we find something that is an easy improvement which effects thousands of cases. this is an issue when people want to make claims about “hottest year on record”, 3. I was initially surprised to learn about the reliance on min/max thermometers in these early records. Under that hypothesis, one interpretation is the change you show at 1975 is unremarkable in regard to BEST’s homogenization as it is outside the period where BEST’s homogenization has a discernible effect on wide-scale trends. ‘Global temperatures are adjusted to account for the effects of station moves, instrument changes, time of observation (TOBs) changes, and other factors (referred to as inhomogenities) that cause localized non-climatic biases in the instrumental record.’. The idea that we are .7C over some equally arbitrary anomaly average for April, therefore proving CAGW is beyond farcical 1. But now all those data are being dumped into the algorithms, and predictably you end up with GIGO. when did you have it removed? It appears he also intends to act like a verbal bully to limit comments from people he can’t easily respond to. In this charged environment yearly temperature records become front page controversy. Adjusted lower pre 1960 and adjusted more linear post 1960 (not adjusted to increase but to match CO2 growth) The BIG issue. Figure 6. I’d do both. Not until satellites started covering everything except the poles does a global average temperature pass the giggle test. These data originate from nine different satellites, the first being launched in late 1978, and their periods of operation varied from about a year (TIROS-N) to over six years (NOAA-11 and -12). We knew enough in 1896 with much less data, to set a policy. Figure 1 shows how they changed over time given the records we have. The model was tested on 28 independent stations, and the results … So it’s a completely dry day as far as the yearly totals are concerned, and as far as posterity will be concerned. It’s common knowledge among experienced professionals that, outside the English-speaking world, other countries use a great variety of methods in determining the “mean monthly temperature,” which is the customary datum used in climatological work. I probably wouldn’t have much to contribute on that particular paper, but there are plenty of things I could do to improve your guy’s product. Heck, I’ve previously offered to fix issues with your website because you guys failed to update it to account for changes in your methodology. However, Rumpelstiltskin was only able to spin straw (bad data) into gold (good data). I could usually even find at least some commentary on what effect it has, if not some results detailing it. How can they just use 1 time? See one here: Really? | Watts Up With That? are we exactly like NOAA, how do we differ, why do we differ, is the adjustment too much, too little. Actually corrsponded to a very big problem of estimating Tmean from just readings! 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